Quantifying Lethality in Age of Sigmar - Initial Thoughts

Two to three months ago, I wrote about different categories to compare a subject's strength in AoS--Durability, Lethality, and Maneuverability  I list here my initial thoughts about measuring a subject's lethality-the potential of a subject to inflict damage. The basic stats pertinent to lethality are the number of Attacks, To Hit chance, To Wound chance, and Damage potential. Rend stats are also pertinent to quantifying lethality; however, the true value of this parameter depends on the Save value of the target being attacked. My thoughts on Rend in quantifying lethality will be made in a subsequent post. I have considered attack Range as part of the quantification of lethality; however, in the end I feel it is better for lethality ratings to be independent of attack Range values. I feel that it is a better fit to consider attack Range values as part of the subject's maneuverability rating since attack Range determines whether their is greater or less flexibility of the subject's positioning to realize the subject's full lethality and/or durability potential.

In trying to quantify potential lethality, two questions immediately come to mind:

1. What is the probability that the subject can damage a target within a phase, turn, or battle round?
2. What is the maximum damage output of the subject within a phase, turn, or battle round?

Combining these two questions into one:

What is the probability that the subject can inflict at least N wounds to target(s) within a phase, turn, or battle round? 

N is the number of wounds ranging from 1 to the maximum damage output of the subject.

Specific calculations and examples of quantifying lethality will be posted in the future. The formulas used will try to consider both the consistency and also the potential lethality of the subject.